Close Rain

agricultural, Charts, Commentary, News, Technical Analysis

The Southern Plains got rains of to , mainly north of the Red River. Nothing for the Llano Estacado. However, this represents a shift in patterns, and more is expected. This new weather pattern is occurring just as W TX enters its monsoon season, which is most inappropriately named. Apr/June is the wettest 3 month period, averaging 6.75 in a year that averages 19.2. The 3 wettest months are May, June and Sep, averaging 2.3, 3.0 and 2.5. An old rule of thumb is that it takes about 12 to produce a cotton crop. Average rainfall from May to Sep is just that 12. Forecast for the Llano Estacado shows nothing for the next week. But 10 to 15 days out chances are much better.

For whatever reason, Monday was one of those all-together down days. The two unloved dogs of the complex, coffee and sugar, were up, while all else was down. Must be one of those sector rotation things.

Varner View

The Llano Estacado weather issue remains in severe drought, but the time of year and recent changes in patterns indicate a chance to break. The other unknown is demand, and this will get settled week by week. History shows a pretty reliable peak in late Feb to Mar. Last year demand took a brief rest, peaking in Mar but picking back up again in June. We remain short term bears.

Technicals

The seasonal high appears to have come just a little early this year, arriving on 6 Mar rather than the average of 11 Mar. There is a trifecta of near-term support around 8060, as this level holds the 34 and 55 day avgs, and the daily low of 3/01. Next support is 7900 which has the 38.2% retrace and a trend line off lows of Oct, Nov and Feb.

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