Day 4 on the Zweig thrust but we think the market is capped between here and 1672 $ES_F

Commentary, Stocks

Today’s Economic News:

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Waiting for an interest decision out of Europe.  Japan just dumped a pile of cash for a massive intervention plan.

Quote of the Day:
It is better to aim at perfection and miss, than to aim at imperfection and hit it
–Thomas J. Watson

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

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We are on a Zweig thrust countdown until next Monday’s close to get above that 60 line.  If we are able to do that, the signal is called a Zweig reversal thrust (in this case it would be a resumption thrust) and has been successful in calling sustained bull markets or continuation of bull markets.

We don’t think it is going to happen, at least not this time.  We are looking for failure in the next couple of days with another trip below 40.  We could be wrong so we need to have a plan B.

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1672
Long:  1606

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We have been calling for a reversal at the 1668 area.  The Globex high was 1667  so we are starting to think about more downside now. Our upside target has moved up to 1672, a break above that would have us looking to 1680 and would tell us that we have it wrong.

We want the bears to resume control right in here and to see 1656 go, then 1643 with 1606 as a downside target. It is the last week of summer in the US and it will be fun to see what the end of August has in store for us.

 

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On the MiM:

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Friday never really produced a strong MiM signal and that was comfortable enough for the markets to close slightly higher.  We would have thought we might get some more in this AM opening today on the US markets, but as I write it looks fairly flat.

At 2pm ET tomorrow I will be talking about the MiM, how I use it, how to read the meter and SnapShot charts.  John Monaco from the floor of the NYSE will be there to answer questions about the mechanics of the close, how the data is collected, etc.  Jill Malandrino will be asking questions and hosting and keeping us on track.  After we are done we will leave the room open and broadcast a screen-share of the MiM in action and maybe a trade will set up.

If you want to learn more about the MiM and see it in action, or if you are already a meter reader and have questions, please join us at: https://mrtopstep.omnovia.com/register/53291377185297

 

If you want to join the meter readers you can go to: Join the MiM

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):

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Strong move up on Friday was still short of our 105.  We would expect to see some back testing before trying again.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

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Just ten away from a Zweig thrust, but those ten are very, very hard to get.


Cumulative Volume Index:

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Volume not following through on the upside, at least not yet.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

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This has been a bit more bullish than we like for our bearish call on the longer term.   We want to stay below 50 here.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

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This is the spot for bullish failure to resume a longer term trend for the bears.  We need this to stay below 90. 


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

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Bearish


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
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A tip of green, bearish/neutral.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

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