Don’t Fight The Tape

Charts, Commentary, News, The Opening Print

The S&P 500 futures (ESZ19:CME) closed at 3146.00 Friday, about 8 points above its 8:30 CT opening print of 3138.25, after closing Thursday at 3117.75. Its trading range (3117.00 – 3151.00) is unremarkable to the exclusion of this year’s intraday high of 3158.00 being just a few ticks away. 

The macro world threw a couple solid economic “reports” right down the middle of the plate for all to see. The China deal is starting to give me some concern. Will whatever’s finally agreed upon and signed serve as a top to this market? I’ve relied upon “buy on rumor sell on news” for years, that isn’t going to change. It’s hard to fight this tape, however complemented by what is quite frankly one of the best economic periods in United States history that I remember, and I’m old.

For weeks you’ve been patient while I settle into my new home. Thank you, your forbearance was much appreciated. As many of you sensed, there was more. Over the last year, AMS and MTS have been looking for a way to combine our products in a way to complement each other. It took a little time, but it was well worth it. Look for an announcement, or two, to follow over the next few weeks, but know the time we spent was for your benefit. 

All of us at AMS and MTS appreciate your business and look forward to earning it every day. If you want to hear more directly from me let me know at david@amstradinggroup.com.

The Close

At 2:30 p.m. CT, the ES was trading at 3147.25, with the MiM showing $146 million to sell. The futures then inched up to 3149.00 as the final 2:45 cash imbalance reveal showed a mere $91 million to sell MOC. It would then go on to print 3145.00 on the 3:00 cash close, and settled at 3146.50 on the 3:15 futures close, up +28.75 handles.

In terms of the day’s overall tone, the ES was very firm, with little to no pullbacks. In terms of the days overall trade, it got very slow after 10:30 CT, and remained that way right into the close. Total volume was the lowest of the week, but decent overall, with 1.29 million contracts traded.

The Dollar

You hear me use the word “patience” over and over. Funny, when I think about golf playing days, the two words were “rhythm” and “tempo”. Not too fast, not too slow… hit to your next, best shot. My next, best shot is the Dollar, and for many reasons, not just one.

First and foremost, the United States wants to be known as a “manufacturing” behemoth. OK, if you want more of your products to sell worldwide, lower their costs, and drive the conversion rate of your currency lower. Imagine that, what country or region of the world does that? Everyone, everywhere.

In normal interest rate cycles, currencies exhibit 5-7 year cycles. When the lesser currencies combine together in a singular direction, complemented by expected support that can be predicted, it’s time to get involved.

I’m getting ready to go really long the Euro against the Dollar when UK elections are over. Patience folks, we know what we are looking for macroeconomic wise, and when we get it we are ready to act.

Soybeans

Anyone doubt the predictability of “beans” using MarketProfile? If I could get you all to realize that the most powerful of charts involve a vertical histogram, we might even be able to teach. It’s not that hard, but remember, we don’t trade every day.

A New Deal!

Because AMS is “combining” with MTS, we will no longer offer the AMS Lifetime License. Our regular price for a Lifetime License is $1,997.00. Between now and the end of the year we are offering the AMS Lifetime License one last time for only $1,497.00. Keep in mind, future pricing of the AMS Annual License will be $997.00, so this is a good deal for more ways than one. If you want one of these Lifetime Licenses email me at david@amstradinggroup.com.

We continue to enhance what we provide for you on a daily and ongoing basis. Keep emailing me and let me know what you want me to highlight as time allows. In the interim, thanks for reading what we post, and enjoy your trading week.


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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

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