Fed Checks the Turn – ES Will Roll

Charts, Commentary, News, The Opening Print

The S&P futures (ESZ19:CME) closed on Wednesday at 3143, about 7 points above its opening print of 3135.50, after closing Tuesday at 3136.  Its trading range (3129.5 – 3144.5) comes with a coupon for “No-Doz”. Think about it; when’s the last time you remember a smaller trading range on a day the Federal Reserve announces a decision? 

Honestly, there is really nothing new to talk about.  Am I missing something? I’m not seeing any real direction from the usual culprits.  Remember, I can’t teach anyone how I trade. All I can do is to show you the symbols and patterns I look for, what they mean to me and trust you will be able to do the same.  I just don’t see anything other than boredom trades.

Chart courtesy of AMS Trading Group

It’s Dollar Time – Going Down

Same thing here and that is good for us.  The Dollar is headed lower folks and it’s mostly the rest of the world that thinks it’s going to happen.  Not sure how many people realize how good the China deal is for the rest of the world. 75% to 80% of all currencies will gain against the Dollar once triggered.  The biggest move has already happened with the price of Coffee moving higher by 33% since our call in the low 90s. We weren’t buying Coffee though; we were buying the Brazilian Real and we’re still long.

Remember, we are seldom day traders.  The Dollar is about to reward those who think a longer-term trend (two to four years) is emerging.  We’ll see how the Euro reacts to today’s Federal Reserve meeting, followed by how Lagarde takes the reigns.

A note of remembrance. There has never been a better Federal Reserve Chairman than Paul Voelker and there never will be.  You’ll be missed and what you taught us will live on as your legacy.


At 2:30 the ES traded 3143.25 as the MiM was showing small to buy. At  the 2:45 the ES traded 3143.75 as the final cash imbalance showed $500 million to buy amd went out to $1.1 billion to buy at 2:51. The ES  traded 3144.25 on the 3:00 cash close and settled at 3143 on the 3:15 futures close, up 7 handles or +.0.2% on the day.

In the end, the overall tone of the ES was firm despite the late day pull back. In terms of the overall volume, it  was on the light side with 1.19 million ES traded, 205,000 coming from Globex.


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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

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