Inside day on close of bottom signal … but they usually come in pairs

Market Recap

Market RecapCollective Intelligence!

Posted here yesterday: Data shows that mutual fund investors poured a net $8.3 billion into U.S. equities funds in the week ending Feb. 19. Inflows into global stock funds were $13.4 billion, the biggest in 12 weeks. With the exception of a few small selling imbalances, money has been pouring back into the stock market.

Snippets: mts2 (07:08) WSJ – Cash Flies Into Bond ETFs – Feb. 24, 2014 6:54 p.m. ET Investors are piling into exchange-traded bond funds at the fastest clip ever, the latest sign of a bond-market revival driven by uneven economic data, emerging-market volatility and the thirst for income-generating investments. U.S. listed bond ETFs have taken in $16 billion this month through Feb. 21, according to TrimTabs Investment Research. This is on track for the largest monthly gain since the 2002 launch of the first bond ETF…

mts2 (07:42) BB RADIO REPORTED THAT OBAMA’S CALENDAR CHANGED THIS MORNING TO ADD JOHN BOEHNER FOR A CLOSED DOOR MEETING… IS THE PRESIDENT GOING TO COMPROMISE? TRY TO RESTART HIS AGENDA? WE HEARD THAT THE REPUBLICANS ARE GOING TO PROPOSE A CHANGE IN THE TAX CODE, LIMITING THE TOP BRACKET TO 25% AND ADD A 10% SURTAX TO THOSE MAKING OVER 450….

mts2 (08:10) Posted here on 2-4-14 Gaecke Report ALERT from 2-3-14 ▪ Gaecke Report ▪ The SP500 has hit the -3.50 level which indicates a major market bottom (last -3.50 signal was in 6/24/13 for a return of 6.67%) ▪ SP500 -3.50 signals are closed at the +1.00 level instead of the 0-Line ▪ Typically, -3.50 signals come in pairs, so it is possible to retest the -3.50 level in the next 1-2 days ▪ The SP500 cash +1.00 level is at 1867.00 ▪ Remember that this +1.00 level will adjust as the signal matures. **Also, Lowry – similar message to Friday, with emphasis now on: looking for buying demand to suggest a sustainable bottom is in place.  *Today’s update: The GAECKE Quant Report positions: Neutral ▪ The S&P 500 closed its -3.50 signal yesterday at the +1.00 ▪ The signal returned a gain of 6.50% from the initial hit on 2/3/14 at 1742.77 to the +1.00 at 1856.00 ▪ The Tornado Alert is active, shorting and selling should be avoided while the Tornado Alert is active.

Today started with 182k ESH and 800 SPH traded on Globex, ESH trading range was 1846.75 – 1841.00. Yesterday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), pit session trading range was 1856.50 – 1837.30 before settling at 1845.90, up 11.6 handles. And the great debate rolls on, weather or economic slowdown … CoreLogic, the FHFA, and ClearCapital all point to some softening in the  prices of homes … today [TOL] beats earnings, but lowers top end by 4% and Case/Shiller housing data reports inline with expectations, but home prices in 20 cities rose at a slower pace in December. Also, Macy’s says quarter off to slow start.

Today’s regular trading hours, pit session, opened unchanged at 1845.50 – 1846.00. elway (08:31) MS stock loan color Largest cover day YTD (since 12/20 actually) in North America by MV yesterday with our book 1.08x better to buy (still the largest cover day YTD even with VZ stripped out). We saw covering across strategies but Fundamentals covered about 3x more than Quants. Covers were led by single stock names…..recall going into yesterday we saw 31 out of 36 net shorted on the desk.  Chatter, elway (08:38) consumer confidence must have been leaked to democrats who manage money early ..bonds are bid and have been for a while and now they are hedging their longs with new shorts in the spx. The first 15 minutes 1847.20 / 1840.50… followed by the intraday low of 1837.50 which was yesterday’s opening print and LOD as well as 10 handles off the this morning’s intraday high. Consumer confidence disappoints, 78.1 vs exp of 80.0, & Richmond Fed checked in –6 vs exp of 3 and 12 prior. parker_schwartz (09:03) WB do you think 1832 can hold?  william_blount  yes, for a little while — thinking we rally very soon, issue = 1844.5 now –  through it or screw it. Snippet from WB’s pre market commentary THE SPILL WAS 79% down — it was accentuated by the news — but the move to the a.m. high is what makes the 1844.5 so critical. On the following bounce, a rejection from the retest of the OR, the downside held the midrange in sideways to higher trade. william_blount (09:22) NOW IT IS UP TO THE BEARS to defend the opening / previous settlement. Well, they didn’t and a new high of 1850.50 followed before drifting quietly lower after the European close while heading into the lunch hour(s).

PivotBoss midday update: http://bit.ly/1hPPszg  ADR targets: http://bit.ly/1mwYHCV

The midday was spent in the midrange, sideways to lower in light volume, with chatter  of put buying picking up in the ETF’s – China, India and emerging markets – last time this happened indices reacted negatively over time. The MrTopStep imbalance Meter, MiM, redliontrader (14:15) so light buying & heavy selling despite [VZ] @ 1.4B to sell-side imbalance and the overall imbalance grew to a $1.4 billion to sell as well going into the close. Derrick  (14:49) 1840s like a rock – mkt too short? Fight to take out 1840 was amazing, bulls chase out weak shorts. The futures traded 1842.70 area on the cash close before settling at 1846.30, up .4 handles. Volume was 1.6M E-minis traded.

More housing data tomorrow: New home sales and MBA purchase applications in the morning. Coming events: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/    Earnings pre-market: [AES], [ANF], [ARCC], [BKS], [CHK], [CRI], [CVC], [DIN], [DLTR], [LB], [LOW], Royal Bank of Canada, [TASR], [TGT], [TJX], [USM]. Wednesday post close: [ADSK], [AGO], [ARI], [BIDU], [CLR], [JCP], [TIVO], [VALE], [WDAY], [WLL].   *Reminder: Rollover going on in bonds/notes. June is lead month on 2/28 – more roll action already today than all last week – Jack Broz.

Tesla zooms up as Morgan Stanley raised their price target on [TSLA] to $320/share from $153 http://on.mktw.net/1fpaSRV

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