Is The Holiday Rally An Aberration?

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Index Futures Net Changes and Settlements:

Contract Settlement Net Change +/-%
S&P 500 (ESH19:CME) 2505.25 +19.25 +0.77%
DowJones (YMH19:CBT) 23,208 +233 +1.01%
Nasdaq 100 (NQH19:CME) 6333.25 +40.00 +0.57%
Russell 2000 (RTYH19:CME) 1349.00 +8.10 +0.60%

Foreign Markets, Fair Value and Volume:

  • In Asia 10 out of 11 markets closed lower: Shanghai Comp -1.15%, Hang Seng -2.77%, Nikkei -0.31%
  • In Europe 10 out of 13 markets are trading lower: CAC -1.27%, DAX -0.19%, FTSE -0.55%
  • Fair Value: S&P +0.48, NASDAQ +13.63, Dow -24.92
  • Total Volume: 1.4mil ESH & 289 SPH traded in the pit

Today’s Economic Calendar:

Today’s economic calendar includes Redbook 8:55 AM ET, PMI Manufacturing Index 9:45 AM ET.


S&P 500 Futures: The End Of Year Rebalance That Wasn’t

Chart courtesy of @TradingFibz $ES_F MML levels below to watch.

After rallying in the overnight session, the S&P 500 futures opened Monday’s final trading day of the year at 2503.50, and would rally up to the morning high at 2510.00 in the first 10 minutes. From there, the futures turned lower, printing the early morning high at 2499.50, and after an eight handle bounce, began to fail with a continual push lower throughout the mid-morning down to 2482.75, before bouncing into midday.

The afternoon saw a continuation of the late morning bounce, as the ES reached an afternoon high of 2509.50 just after 12:30, and then turned lower chopping its way down to a higher low of 2486.75 just after 1:30. After the mid-afternoon low was made the ES rallied up to 2502.00 heading into the final hour.

In the last hour of 2018 the ES began to rally, but failed at 2505.50, and then sold into the close down to 2488.25. After that, the futures rallied in the closing seconds up to 2510.00, printed 2509.50 on the 3:00 close, and went on to trade to a new high of day at 2513.00, before settling the day at 2508.25, up +22.25 handles, or +0.90%.



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HotSpots are times during the market trading session that for the past XX days have consistently moved in one direction or the other. These HotSpots are published each morning pre-market. The next day, a results post is also published and weekly a summary post.

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