MrTopStep’s Index Futures Recap

Charts, Commentary, E-mini S&P 500, Market Recap, SP500

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   MrTopStep’s Index Futures Recap  –  Thursday December 17th

 

Last night on the globex open, the S&P 500 bid higher throughout the Asian and Euro sessions making high of 2072.25 in the 5:00 am CT hour and maintained a trade near those highs as world markets felt the momentum of the positive Wednesday session from U.S. markets.

 

At the US regular trading hours open, the ESH15 traded at 2068.25 and traded it’s high of the regular session almost immediately before selling in the first hour while failing to maintain a steady bid throughout the session. As the final hour opened the MiM (market-on-close meter) began to show a sell side building as the ESH6 began to lose its buyers and sellers smacked it down more than 20 handles in the final 45 minutes of trading on a $800 million USD MOC sell imbalance to close 44 handles lower or more than 2.0%. Today’s price action resulted in a reversal from yesterday on less but still impressive volume while putting in an outside day or engulfing bar reversal.

 

Heard across the news wires today was little but mostly included some final bank commentaries and responses to yesterday’s FOMC rate hike.Heading into tomorrow, the day will  focus in on the December quad witching as Friday’s stats are positive having closed higher in 22 of the last 31 years.

 

GS on Fed Hikes — USA: FOMC Raises Funds Rate, Signals Focus on Inflation Developments BOTTOM LINE: The FOMC raised the funds rate to 0.25-0.50%, as widely expected. The post-meeting statement signaled a baseline of further funds rate increases, but expressed caution about inflation developments. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed an unchanged median funds rate for end-2016; median projections for 2017-18 declined moderately. MAIN POINTS: 1. The FOMC raised its target rate for the federal funds rate at today’s meeting to a range of 0.25-0.50%, ending a seven-year period at 0-0.25%. The supplementary “implementation note” announced the following changes: an increase in the interest on excess reserves rate (IOER) to 0.50% (from 0.25%); an increase in the reverse repo (RRP) facility rate to 0.25% (from 0.05%); a removal of the cap on the RRP facility (it will be constrained only by the stock of Treasury securities held by the Fed; previously the Fed capped this program at $300bn); and an increase in the discount rate to 1.00% (from 0.75%). 2. The post-meeting statement signaled a baseline of further funds rate increases, but expressed caution about inflation developments. In particular, the statement said: “In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate”—stressing the “gradual” message repeated in many public comments by Fed officials. The statement also added that “some” survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations “edged down”. 3. The statement also noted that the “stance of monetary policy remains accommodative”, even after the increase in the funds rate—a phrase the FOMC also used during the 2004 tightening process. Additionally, the statement said that the runoff of the Fed’s balance sheet is not likely to begin until “normalization of the federal funds rate is well under way”. 4. In the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), participants made few changes to their forecasts for the economy and monetary policy. Fed officials raised their projections for GDP growth moderately for 2016 and lowered their projections for the unemployment rate. However, they also reduced the projection for core PCE inflation to 1.6% for end-2016 from 1.7% previously. The median projection for the funds rate at the end of 2016 was unchanged at 1.375%; the median funds rate projection for the longer run was also unchanged at 3.5%. Median projections for 2017-18 declined moderately. 5. Fed Chair Yellen’s press conference begins at 2:30pm Eastern Time. Zach Pandl

 

Danny Riley of MrTopStep has been asked to make an appearance on the radio at 7:55 a.m. CST and 11:55 a.m. CST tomorrow  at www.rmastars.com.  Danny is hoping that all of his followers will come out and listen to him as he discusses relevant market news and timely commentary on the S&P 500 and all tradeable markets.                

 

                              

MrTopStepRadio

Seen Today In The IM Pro Trading Room:

 

Dboy ( 9:39:47 AM ): 1.1tril in S&P options hanging over the ES

MTS2 ( 11:35:13 AM ): y’day post Fed we sold 2,500 es at mrkt – so thin filled 40.00 down to 32 area

Dboy ( 10:21:20 AM ): paid 52.00 small

Dboy ( 10:26:28 AM ): using a 49.25 stop

Dboy ( 10:32:30 AM ): sold half at 56.50

Dboy ( 10:32:37 AM ): had to

Dboy ( 10:36:13 AM ): should have taken all of it, may still be too early

Dboy ( 10:45:49 AM ): scratched the balance

Dboy ( 1:14:25 PM ): 01:10:04 PITBULL: DOUBLE BOTTOMED

Dboy ( 2:51:15 PM ): NLOTC

Dboy ( 2:52:01 PM ): u tradem I’ll provide the flow

Dboy ( 2:52:40 PM ): the feel has to come from somewhere

Dboy ( 2:53:16 PM ): 02:49:59 PITBULL: the old pattern killem into 3 pm

Dboy ( 3:12:38 PM ): MiM -372mil for sale

Dboy ( 3:29:14 PM ): Rule No.1: No Stops Go Untouched in the S&P 500. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1. MrTopStep

Dboy ( 3:56:21 PM ): 03:56:05 TRADINGDATA2: (driley) NLOTC

Dboy ( 4:10:26 PM ): 04:10:04 PITBULL: TRIN IS 318 THEY KNEW THIS ALL DAY

 

Floor Pivots For Tomorrow’s RTH E-mini

 

R3  2131.50

R2  2085.25

R1  2054.75

PP  2039.00

S1  2008.50

S2  1992.75

S3  1946.50

 

Tomorrow’s Notable Earnings: Blackberry LTD (BB) Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI) Carmax Inc (KMX)

 

Tomorrow’s Economic Calendar:

 

Quadruple Witching

 

Market Focus »

 

PMI Services Flash

9:45 AM ET

 

Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations

10:00 AM ET

 

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

11:00 AM ET

 

Jeffrey Lacker Speaks

12:30 PM ET

 

Baker-Hughes Rig Count

1:00 PM ET

 

<ul>

<li>Open: 2068.25  </li>

<li>High   2069.50  </li>

<li>Low:   2023.25  </li>

<li>Close: 2024.25 </li>

<li>Volume: 1,890,665 total  </li>

<li>MOC:   $800 million to sell     </li>

</ul>

 

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