Our thoughts and prayers go out to anyone who may be affected/infected by the devastating virus that is spreading. Last check, 76,731 infected with at least 2,247 deaths. That’s up 117 from this morning.
PREVIOUS DAY — THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20, 2020
E-Mini opened just under 7 handles below settle at 3379.50 handle. The first buying wave lasted until the 10:15 marker at the current high of day 3389 handle. The low was at 3377.75 at the 9:38 marker. It was an S3L day so the spill would be up along with the opening balance.
On the Wyckoff Wave, which is a refined composite of the DOW 30 securities, you could see a checking of the upward move at the previous day’s high. NYSE Ticks were the highest, 623, at 9:52 and Fair Value at 10:12 with -6.1 value. Fair Value was -0.29 for the day.
Volume at the 11:00 hour was low, only 200K with a range of 11 handles or so since the opening at 9:30 EST. The day before the volume was low, around 800K, indicating fewer traders willing to lift offers in CASH secession.
At 11:00 you could see a small probe into the downtrend supply line set from the high of 3397.50 and 3391.25 from the overnight Globex trade as price was unable to get out of the gravity well set at the previous day’s settlement of 3386.50 handle.
This probe was too great as selling pressure quickly emerged bringing price down below the Globex low of 3376.50 and the low of the previous RTE day of 3377.75 indicating the selling is more effectual than the buying.
Quickly thereafter followed a waylay of bids getting hit with market orders / Algo’s all the way back down to the 3340 handle which was the lunch high on 2/7 and 2/10 dates. That’s a thirty handle drop! After we lost the lows indicated above it was an air hockey Australian market to find a willing buyer.
For more detail please review the Market Recap Video
LOOKING FORWARD — FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 2020
Great moves are usually followed by good moves. Expect more of the same. Trump’s impeachment is losing traction. The market is gaining traction. So, so great for the opposing party. Unless…they find another shoe to drop! (Jan-7) (Trump was in Colorado today)
The low at 11:30 hit an exact hidden Floor Trader Level from the 1930s almost to the tick. Overnight Globex kept the expanded down trend line referenced to the rally to the halfback around at the close. The big 50 seems to be a magnet for bids coming into the market. The probe down to the 3340 was milliseconds as the ALGOS drove price back up to the 3350 handle.
As a human trader, your stop was sure to be hit. Wycoff would have said to wait until price swings back into a pendulum. Ten handles in 1 second is not for the faint of heart. Something about fools and angels comes to mind…
Any move up from that clearly defined trend line will give reason for buying pressure to enter into the fray.
Both the high and the low were defined in less than thirty minutes with a 10:54 a.m. high and an 11:33 a.m. low with a near 50 handle range. The old adage “Can the bulls climb that ‘Wall of Worry’?”comes to mind.
Unless some major downer event occurs around 3:00 to 8:00 a.m. you could see price start to advance in a northern direction today. That volume spike at 11:29 was off the charts. I mean literally, it was off my chart!
As you can see this is issue number 612. I’ve written 612issues and have given our faithful subscribers over 3,933 points to date with 553 trades since August 8, 2018. Just this week our subscribers have been very lucky with the levels given: Off Holiday Monday, 17 points Tuesday, 9 points Wednesday, and -4 points Thursday. Total for the week 22 points, that would be $1,100 on 1 lot and $3,300 on 3 lots.
I’ll be the first to say, it does NOT happen every week. When it does it’s a beautiful thing!
I would love for you to join us. Click the link below to learn more.
In the Tradechat Room
I truly believe that the market was knocked into gear today by headline news algos that latched onto the pandemic headlines and sold off into a low-volume, going nowhere kind of day. I wanted to see the MIM to figure out if we had a true shift. A large sell would tell us that the exit doors are lit. That didn’t happen. A large buy would mean this was a chance to get in at lower prices. Neither happened.
We confirmed there truly wasn’t anything happening. There were decent imbalances, 1.1B of buy imbalances and 1.2B worth of sell imbalances. We are rotating into a defensive position, but the trap door is still in place and covered by the stage rug.
Get the skinny when we get it. Join the MiM.
Starting at 11:30 am ET the programs kicked in and started pushing the market around.. We did a total of 162 programs for the day., 74 buys and 88 sells.
Chart of the Day
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|(ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session||(ESH20:CME) Day Session|
|High 3397.50||Opening Print: 3380.00|
|Low: 3375.25||High 3389.00|
|Volume: 310,000||Low: 3393.25|
|ES Settlement: 3369.25, down 19 handles or -0.56%|
|Total Volume: 2M|
S&P 500 Futures: Expect the Unexpected; Goldman Says Market Underestimating Coronavirus Risk: ‘Correction is Looking Much More Probable’
The ES traded up to 3397.50 on Globex and then sold off down to 3375.25 on Globex Wednesday night and traded 3380.00 on Thursday morning’s open and traded up to 3383.50 in the opening minutes and then sold off down to 3377.75, pulled back a bit then traded all the way up to 3389.00. Started to pull back and just after 10:00 CT the ES reacted to some comments that were made by Goldman strategist Peter Oppenheimer that were released Wednesday at 3:15 PM and released again at 5:21 PM CT Wednesday that said: “We believe the greater risk is that the impact of the coronavirus on earnings may well be underestimated in current stock prices, while a sustained bear market does not look likely, a near-term correction is looking much more probable”. His comments were recirculated on Twitter around 10:00 CT yesterday and that is when the ES ‘crashed’ from the 3384 level all the way down to 3339.25, dropping 44 handles in 20 minutes. The leader of the drop was the Nasdaq futures (NQH19:CME) which fell over 200 points. After the ES made its low it rallied 35 handles up to 3374 just before 2:00.
At 2:00 the ES traded 3369.50 as the early MiM showed $245 million to buy and then traded down to the 3363.50 area. At 2:30 the ES traded 3371.50 as the MiM showed $237 million to buy. On the 2:50 cash imbalance, the ES traded 3371.00 as the final MiM flipped to $150 million to sell, traded 3373.00 on the 3:00 cash close and settled at 3369.25 on the 3:15 futures close, down 19.00 handles or -0.56% on the day. The NQ settled at 9624.25, down 109.25 points or 1.08%.
In terms of overall tone, the ES got bush-whacked by a recycled GS headline that came out at 2:15 PM and 5:20 PM yesterday. In terms of the day’s overall trade, total volume was 2 million with 310,000 coming from Globex making total day volume 1.96 million contracts.
Our view: Goldman Retweet ES Hell and the Ever-Changing World of Trading
The PitBull said it was 50 years ago this month that he started on Wall Street and all the stuff he learned and all his charting and research studies ‘just don’t work anymore’. It’s a funny thing when you start reflecting on your life and all the letdowns and achievements. Even if you did great things, it’s hard to give up old habits but in today’s ever-changing market environment even the best traders in the world are scratching their heads. I know we have all had great length discussions about how high-frequency trading and the algorithmic trading programs have changed the game but it’s more than that. How is it possible that a GS headline that came out Wednesday afternoon could have such an effect 17 or 20 hours later? Because some yahoo on Twitter retweeted it? At the end of the day, I really do not think it’s worth trying to figure out. In today’s world, 24-year-old kids with MBAs and PHDs have learned all the mistakes a trader can make and these kids have programmed the BOT to take advantage of that. Have you ever played computer 7 card draw? You win a few times but if you don’t get up and walk away the dealer machine will eventually take every penny you’re willing to put into it. This is not intended to be a depressing story, it’s more about knowing the game has changed and we have two choices, adapt or fold.
I look back on my days on the trading floor as a time when a tough street guy like myself could work hard and create a business that helped both the desk guys earn a living and the customers that needed a guy that cared about their order but today no one really cares. For many retail traders, they also created something that has been taken away but at the end of the day… there is nothing we can do about it. Is it depressing? No. Do I like it? No, but again there is no going back in time!
From JPMorgan to Goldman to B of A Merrill to Nomura, every big bank is calling for a stock market let down. I know… I didn’t get my ES 3400 but that’s not the end of the world and no matter what anyone says, I am not ruling out a push above that level. The problem the markets face is the global shrink down due to thousands of supply chains getting cut due to the China coronavirus. As long as this persists, the markets will be prone to headline risk. Our lean is that the ES goes back up a bit, just not sure it will hold.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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