Row Crop Rally

agricultural, Charts, Commentary, Cotton futures, News, Technical Analysis

Even rice got going with a rally, as corn, soy, wheat, sorghum, barley, and canola caught the seasonal today and bounced. Cotton has managed a 150 point up-tick from Fridays low, and is looking around for a reason to continue. Well, there is that hurricane wreaking havoc on the Jamaican crop, and bulls are hoping it slides into the Carolina coastline on Friday. Slim chance. Then there is always a downslide in the dollar, but this thing has been flat for nearly 2 years.

Harvest progress was furious over the weekend, as cotton is the last crop to come out, with a few tardy soy fields. By next weekend, just about every field south of Memphis will be out of the fields, awaiting ginning. Weather looks almost perfect, even if there are a few alarmists trying to pull the hurricane into Charlotte. Wont happen. There is an opposing front that will be over the Mississippi River on Friday, effectively pushing outward on the hurricane. Very light, 1/10 rains are possible on the Llano Estacado tomorrow, but thats about it.

Varner View

Following a 6c drop, a puny 2c bounce can be expected. This rally should quickly run out of steam as harvest approaches, and that dreaded notice period for Dec. COT positions continue to show an historical net long spec and same for total open interest. Our target for late Nov is around the loan, say 60c.


The 21 day avg is at 6888 and the 34 day is 6848. Above that is the 55 day at 7032. The slope of all these averages is negative. A trend line beginning at the 8/05 top and crossing the 9/22 top crosses today near 7125. This line drops 15 ticks/day. Sell rallies.


Varner Brothers
325 Cotton Row Cleveland MS 38732


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