S&P 500 Futures; 2015 The Year of the CHOP

Charts, Commentary, News, The Opening Print, Video


2015 December Year End

What can we say that has not been said before? Not much, and with a total of 5 trading days left in 2015, Santa has finally shown, up but a big question about the overall integrity of the S&P remains in question. As the Federal Reserve starts to unwind its nearly $3 to $4 trillion in debt one has to wonder if raising rates rapidly is a good idea.

Yes, the S&P futures have rallied 64.5 handles since making Mondays higher low at 1995.25. Since then, its has been a grind higher, smoking the bears out of their dens. It’snot what they wanted but the sell off was not what the bulls wanted either. At the end of the day, the S&P 500 futures (ESH16:CME) settled at 2053.00, up 0.80%. The Dow Jones futures (YMH16:CBT) closed up 115 points at 17472, or up 0.75%. The Nasdaq 100 futures (NQH16:CME) closed at 4606.75 up 15.75 points, or +0.30 %

It was another slow grind to the upside. MrTopStep warned traders that the big drop in volume would lead to one of its trading rules called ‘thin to win’ and that the ESH16 could be back to 2070 by Thursday’s close. Yesterday’s high was only 12.25 handles off the call.

Today’s trade will be a half day, and after a three day rally, it’s hard to think there is much momentum left going into today, it’s also hard to imagine any serious selling. The volume will again be low and likely that the ranges will be tight. Of note is the fact that the S&P 500 cash index closed back in the positive territory for the year, 6 handles over last years close. This sets up an interesting line in the sand for the remainder of the year as markets determine wether to close the year in the red or green.

In Asia, 7 out of 11 markets closed higher (Shanghai Comp -0.65%), and in Europe 11 out of 12 markets are trading sharply higher (DAX +2.28%). Today’s economic calendar starts with the Weekly Bill Settlement, Jobless Claims, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, EIA Natural Gas Report, 3-Month Bill Announcement, 6-Month Bill Announcement, 2-Yr Note Announcement, 5-Yr Note Announcement, 7-Yr Note Announcement, NYSE Early Close: 1:00 PM, SIFMA Rec., Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply.

Our View: We are keeping the Opening Print short. Our call is the same as it’s been for the last 3 to 4 days, that said our other call is to avoid trading. Take it from someone that has learned the hard way; there is nothing good about trading on Christmas Eve or New Year’s Eve. It is an excellent way to screw up the holidays and any winning trades are most likely not going to change the outcome of most people’s year.

MrTopSTep Year End Settlement Price Contest

2015 Year End Settlement Contest

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‘S&P 500 Futures and the End of the Year March’

As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.

    • In Asia 7 out of 11 markets closed higher : Shanghai Comp. -0.65%, Hang Seng +0.44%, Nikkei -0.51%
    • In Europe 11 of 12 markets are trading higher : CAC -0.38%, DAX +2.28%, FTSE +0.03% at 5:00am CT
    • Fair Value: S&P -8.22, NASDAQ -7.54, Dow -91.64
    • Total Volume: 1.0mil ESH and 9.2k SPH
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