$SPY $DIA Tack to Sixth Year of Presidential Terms Seasonal Pattern


For the first time this year, DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are all positive year-to-date at the same time. Solid across-the-board gains in May and new all-time highs by DJIA and S&P 500 appear to have broken the midterm election-year curse. This improves the odds that the worst two-consecutive quarters of the four-year presidential election cycle could be better than average. Markets have broken free of the typical midterm year pattern since 1950 and now appear to be tracking the Sixth Year of Presidential terms more closely.

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[DJIA Sixth Year Seasonal Pattern since 1901]
[S&P 500 Sixth Year Seasonal Pattern since 1931]

Should DJIA and S&P 500 follow the Sixth Year of Presidential terms pattern, further gains are likely this quarter and significant weakness will be held at bay until sometime during August and September. However the tapering of Fed liquidity and concerns about when interest rates will rise could still easily derail the market.

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