Tariff Low Downs and Showdowns

Charts, Commentary, News, The Opening Print

The S&P 500 futures (ESZ19:CME) closed at 3091.00 Tuesday, about 10 points above its opening print of 3081.50, after closing Monday at 3114.25. Its trading range (3069.50 – 3121.75) was unremarkable to the exclusion of its final print being closer to the high of the day.

There’s that China thing again. Macroeconomic signals still suggest range bound, if not lower, prices for stocks. There are better places to play.  

The MiM

At 2:30, a series of buy programs activated that helped propel the ES up to 3094.25 as the MiM showed more than $1.2 billion to buy. The futures went on to trade 3088.50 when the 2:45 cash imbalance reveal showed $1.66 billion to buy MOC. As the MiM began to pair off, the ES popped back up to 3194.00, then printed 3193.00 on the 3:00 cash close, and settled the day at 3091.75 on the 3:15 futures close, down -23.25 handles, or -0.70%. 

In terms of the days overall tone; it was very weak early on, but rallied 25 handles off the low. In terms of the days overall volume; it was the highest we’ve seen since early October. A total of 2.1 million futures contracts traded, with 470,000 of that coming from Globex, meaning 1.63 million ES traded during the day session.  

Dollar and Euro

Movement in the Dollar (DX 12-19) and Euro (6E 12-19) continues to make sense. That sometimes scares me. The charts are mirror images of one another. We’ve taken a position in the Euro and would like to hold it for a couple months. That is going to take the Pound ending its “euphoria” for a bit.  The Euro is teed up to run; the only country that could possibly lower its interest rates is the United States.

Soybeans

Let’s go “Beans”… Let’s go beans… I think we caught the bottom. Notice, we’re on the third leg of averaging down, and double up each time (when time allows let me show you how to make money playing Roulette in Monte Carlo; no table limit, 37 number wheel).

Natural Gas

We still don’t see a setup here, but here’s a great chart hitting its head on a prior level of support turned resistance. It’s that simple folks; look for these types of patterns then look to where the lower volume points are on the histogram on the right. Remember, water flows from a high point to a low point.

We’re getting close in being able to enhance what we provide for you on a daily and ongoing basis. Keep emailing me at david@amstradinggroup.com and let me know what you want me to highlight and teach when time allows. In the interim, thanks for reading what we post, and enjoy your trading week.


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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

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