The S&P500 cash index $SPX closed at 2452.51 on August 22nd, 2017. Our 2 day RSI, the shortest we track closed at a decent 81.19, which the XRONOS scanner found 718 similar days since 1980 when $SPX RSI-2 close around 81.19.
Using the sequence of RSI’s from 2 day up to 21 days, XRONOS finds 23 days where all RSIs close similar to yesterday. Scanning across the table you can see it is about 50/50 for a positive or negative return for 2 days. It is the 3 day return that has the most significant statistical probability, although it is not the greater than 2:1 that I like to see. It is 15 up to 8 down and the average return is divergent with a loss of -0.05%. That’s not so bullish. Looking out 21 days from yesterday’s close we also see 15 longs versus 8 shorts, but at least this has a small positive return.
Looking at the entire chart, there are some scary date here, particularly Sept 10 & 11 2002 down double digits during 21 days. This indicator is still new to us so we are watching how it works over time.