TopNotch’s Noon Update

"markets", Commentary
​Good afternoon,
It appears after the early weakness these two index futures want to look for higher ground by years end.  The “anything goes” scenario is taking shape and those downside # price objectives weren’t that far fetch of an idea for finding levels for a bounce.  I understand they were taken out with some risk, but the 3 to 1 ratio / risk / reward did pay off.  The s&p is working at a “faster” clip to the upside due to the fact it has found a test of its settle price moving into the 2nd half of today.
The s&p after finding its current low of 2037.00 did bid the 2039.50 price after that when finding a high at 2044.00.  A small pull back to the 2041.00 price led a move above the opening range when finding new highs at 2048.75.  The confirmation of the momentum turn was with that last “higher low” 2046.50, which in turn held the opening range of 2046.00-2047.00.  However, the however had to come out by holding its settle price of 2054.60 when stopping in its tracks at a current high of 2054.75.  Holding that level could change things heading into the close.  It would need to work back under the opening range, 2046.00-2047.00, in order to find trouble late.  Up top I still like the 2058.50-2060.90 area.
The Nasdaq did find a move under its # price of 4603.50 when finding its current low at 4599.00.  It offered that 3 to 1 ratio of risk reward when finding a high at 4617.75 off that low.  When a pull back at 4609.00 held the 4603.50 price, a higher low, it found a test of its opening tic 4628.50, first time 4627.75, low 4622.00, 2nd time high 4629.25, which in turn found a double bottom print at 4623.75.  Making new highs at 4636.25 stopped short of its settle by 10 handles and as I write is taking turning under its opening tic of 4628.50, a position that doesn’t bode well moving into the 2nd half of today.  Key will be that last low at 4609.00 that led to the retest of the opening tic.  This future hints to trouble late due to the easy breach of the opening tic.  There is nothing really to stop a slide late, but the other side says there is nothing to stop a bounce into the close.
The only thing that bothers me was a quick turn the 30 year bonds saw near the noon hour.
The bonds finally found its pivotal price of 153.11 today when making a current low at 153.10.  A bounce to the 153.17 price held the early low that led to its current high of 153.30.  Finding the 153.12 price on the return, out of nowhere right before noon, it rallied up to a high of 153.26 as it sits there waiting to make up its mind on a next move.  Finding a move to the opening tic 153.20 has it sitting chilly.  New highs look for 154.13 and 154.26, while new lows look for 153.03.
Top Notch

MrTopStep Group


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