Wayne Whaley Newsletter 09-27-2016

Charts, Commentary, News, Technical Analysis

The headlines lately seem to suggest the market favors one candidate over another. I thought I would look through the history of my S&P database to see how the market has fared under each party. The study covers 1930-2015, since 1930 is the depth of my S&P database. The actual start of the election years has varied over the last century, but for this study, I rounded to the year which the candidate took office. I could do a more detailed analysis, if interest warranted, but I think this suffices, given one could argue the market results of the first year of an administration should probably be attributed to the previous administrations policies, anyway.

The popular perception is that Republicans are more business friendly. If that is the case, it hasn’t translated to higher returns for the equities markets, at least not since 1930.

Since 1930, the S&P is 33-14 during Democratic administrations for an average/median return of 10.50/12.43%. During Republican terms the S&P was 25-14 for an average/median return of 3.51/3.53%. The average S&P return since 1930 is 7.33%.

Republicans could counter with several arguments, such as Democratic administrations have benefited from deficit spending, and the good fortune of dodging a couple of military conflicts. The twelve year Roosevelt term caught the Post Depression recovery, but I am beginning to deviate from my original intent of delivering you the results and letting you draw your own conclusions on this one. Certainly, each term, should be evaluated individually as well, based on that particular presidents policies.

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