What is the MiM telling us about the Month End?

Commentary, MiM, News, Stocks

Today’s Economic News:

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You have to like the Italians, they are a very confident people. During the height of the crisis I don’t think they even went below 85.  Germany flashed some red today with an upward number on the unemployment, that needs noting.  Initial jobless claims today in the USA and preliminary GDP numbers should decide where the starting line for the US market is going.  As of 6:30am ET, it is basically flat.  

Quote of the Day:
Women like silent men. They think they’re listening.
–Marcel Archard

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

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Zweig took a bit of a bounce yesterday but that selling on the close gave it a bit of a hit.  We will see if the closing sell continues through the open.  Flat right now. 

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1643
Long:  1606

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We are not changing our tune. Still singing when the bears come marching in.   We want that 1606 target we established a while back.  First though we need to get through 1620 and 1617 to get a confirmation that a 2nd thrust down day is shaping up.   A good market reset before a fall rally might just be good for everyone.

If we are wrong about our goals and timing, that 1643 on the upside will not hold.  That is our re-evaluation line.

The MiM has an interesting setup.  We don’t have a lot of data in our data set just yet, but if end of the month selling sets up like last month, we might get some downside momentum here in the next couple of days.

 

On the MiM:

 

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Interesting ride on the MiM yesterday as we came out of the chute with a strong sell bias on the MiM while the markets rallied into 3:30pm.

What happens is as the markets rally, the sellers satisfy their closing needs into the rally and remove the MOC orders.  I took an early short then added more around 3:20pm.  I ended up with just 0.50 in profit after dumping my trade based on losing the $PCT signal as it went below my 66% threshold.  That of course was a mistake, I coulda made more, but  I didn’t and more importantly, I didn’t lose any money either it was a difficult trade into the close.

But what about this pattern, haven’t we seen this before? A day where the market rallies up into the 3:20pm and 3:30pm time with a strongly biased MiM sell signal only to eventually close lower.

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Above is July 30th when we did the same kind of thing.  Again, a 3PM entry short cost and the 3:30 entry paid.  It was the next day that was interesting.   See how day two on the MiM worked out below:

 

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That day was a really great ride, I remember it clearly.   What does yesterday and today have in common with July 30 and 31st?  They are end of the month days and here we are closing out August into Labor Day weekend.

I am not making any predictions here, just observations as we are all learning to trade this unique data together.   Watch the MiM today and see how day 2 turns up.  If you don’t have a ticket to ride.. today is a great day to get one.

If you want to join the meter readers you can go to: Join the MiM

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):

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Critical hold here for TLT on the 105.25 area, below that look for 104.25. 

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Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

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See comments above.


Cumulative Volume Index:

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Not much of an upside bounce volume wise

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

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Price might have been up but the broader market showing weakness.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

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Ideally we want to stay below 40 here.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

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Bearish


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
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Bearish.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

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